This month, the story is pending sales. We just crossed a thousand pending sales in the city of Austin for the first time in a long time, and that one number is changing a lot of the picture underneath. Listings are climbing the way they normally do in spring, but demand is climbing faster. That is a setup we have not seen for a few years.

Watch Now

Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.

Pending Sales Just Crossed 1,000

The headline number this month is pending sales: 1,048 in the past 30 days. That is the first time we have seen a comma in that stat in quite a while, and it is well ahead of the 800-and-change in closed sales over the same window.

What that tells us is that demand is showing up. Active listings climbed to 3,047, but because pending sales jumped even faster, monthly housing inventory actually fell slightly to 2.91 months. More homes for sale, more homes going under contract, less time on market. That is a healthier rhythm than we have had in a while.

A Possible Early Signal of a Stronger Selling Season

Looking at the listing inventory barometer, which tracks new listings against pending sales week by week, we hit 200% for the week of April 5–11 and were over 150% for two weeks in the month. That is the supply-demand coverage ratio we have been hoping to see. It gives buyers more breathing room and gives the market the inventory it needs to translate demand into actual transactions.

There is something else worth flagging: in the most recent month, inventory retracted in two separate weeks. Going back to last year, you do not see retractions like that until June or July. This is a leading indicator, and it is telling us this selling season may be stronger than the last couple.

The May 2026 Numbers at a Glance

Active Listings & Inventory

The interesting tension here is that active listings are up, but inventory months are down. That is what happens when demand catches up with supply.

• Active listings: 3,047, up with normal spring seasonality
• 30-day pending sales: 1,048
• Monthly housing inventory: 2.91 months

We will be watching closely next month to see if buyers keep showing up at this pace or if the seasonal lift in listings starts to outrun them.

Sales Per Month

• ~800 closed sales

This is the part of the story we keep coming back to. Historically, May in Austin produced about 1,300 sales. We are running closer to 800, which is roughly 38–40% below what a normal May would generate. This is year five of anemic sales volume. The pending number suggests next month could finally start to close that gap.

Average Sale Price

• $815,000 Average Price
• Down slightly year-over-year, up slightly month-over-month
• Roughly 11% below the 2022 peak of $914K

Worth noting: the median price is down about 17% from its all-time high while the average is down only 11%. That gap tells us the luxury end of the market is holding up better than the middle. The high-end is still moving.

If you bought before the pandemic, you have meaningful equity. If you bought in 2022, you may still be a bit underwater on paper. We are also seeing people who bought in 2024 selling at or near break-even, but it is hyper-local. Every property is its own story.

Days to Sell

• 46 days
• Down 23% month-over-month, up 2% year-over-year

That is right in line with normal seasonality, and 46 days is not far off the 32–40 days we saw in healthy pre-pandemic markets like 2018 and 2019. This is a relatively healthy number, especially given everything else going on.

New Listings

• ~1,500 new listings
• Down year-over-year

Here is one of the more interesting stats this month. We are at 1,500 new listings, almost exactly where we were in May 2019, and a bit below 1,700 in May 2018. New listings being down year-over-year, with pending sales surging, is exactly the kind of supply-demand setup that can drive prices upward if it holds.

Sale Price to List Price Ratio

• 97.62%
• Down slightly year-over-year, up slightly month-over-month

In a market with strong, consistent price appreciation, this number typically sits closer to 99%. At 97.62%, we are on the low side of healthy, which fits the up-and-down market we have been in. The direction matters more than the number though, and it has been trending up year-to-date. If pending sales hold, expect this to keep climbing.

Mortgage Rates Settle Back Down

Last month we reported rates around 6.48%. We are now at 6.3%, still up from the 5.98% we hit two months ago, but moving back in the right direction.

If we can get this number to settle below 6%, psychologically that will mean a lot to buyers who are still on the fence. Even small movements down from here can pull more buyers off the sidelines.

My Advice for May 2026

If you are Buying:
Get out there and start looking. Even if you do not find the perfect home right now, you will be in tune with what is listed, how quickly it is selling, and what realistic expectations look like. The big caveat: when you find a property you love, move quickly. Quality listings are selling fast. The stale stuff sitting on the market is the lower-quality inventory. The good homes are not waiting around.

If you are Selling:
Do not wait. Inventory is still relatively low and demand is showing up. Listing now lets you take advantage of the spring momentum before the wave of late-spring and summer listings dilutes attention.

Want to know what is happening on your block?
Austin real estate is hyper-local, not just down to the zip code but down to the neighborhood and the specific home. If you want a deeper read on your property, reach out. Lee is a former appraiser, and there is nobody better in Austin when it comes to narrowing in on pricing. He would be happy to chat about your home and your goals.

Thanks for joining us. We will see you next month.

If you've been following along with us, you've heard us say it: real estate is hyper-local. Citywide numbers are useful, but the real action is happening neighborhood-by-neighborhood, and sometimes street-by-street. We just had an East Side listing go under contract its first weekend on the market. Other listings, sometimes only a few blocks away, are sitting longer. That is the market we are in.

Watch Now

Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.

Mortgage Rates Tick Back Above 6%

Last month, we celebrated the first 5-handle on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in a long time. That party didn't last.

Rates have jumped roughly half a point over the past six weeks, putting us back near 6.5% on a 30-year fixed for a primary residence. The biggest driver was geopolitical: conflict in the Middle East rattled the bond market and pulled mortgage rates up with it. Investor loans and short-term rental product are running higher still.

Here is the key thing to remember: rates can move quickly in either direction. If you are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect rate, my suggestion is to talk to a lender now and get pre-qualified. We are happy to introduce you to a few. That way, when the right rate or the right house shows up, you are not scrambling. You are ready.

A Tale of Multiple Markets

One of the most interesting things about Austin right now is how different things look depending on where you are standing.

Some neighborhoods are flat-out hot. Well-priced homes in desirable pockets are getting multiple offers and going under contract within days. Other parts of town, and even other parts of those same East Side or South Austin zip codes, are taking longer to move. Citywide averages can hide all of that.

The bigger picture is also full of crosscurrents. Oracle just announced 30,000 layoffs, and one of their largest offices is right here in Austin. Block announced cuts last month. Oil and gas prices have ticked up. None of this guarantees a recession, but it's the kind of mix that keeps the Fed's hand on the rate lever, which means real estate remains the primary tool the government has to stimulate the economy when it needs to. That cuts both ways, and it is why we keep saying: zoom out on the macro, but zoom in on your neighborhood.

The April 2026 Numbers at a Glance

Sales Velocity & Inventory

Active listings have climbed back to just over 2,700, up sharply from the ~2,100 floor we hit a couple of months ago. That is exactly the seasonal rise we have been forecasting, and it is good news for buyers who haven't found the right home yet.

Demand is keeping up:

• 30-Day Pending Inventory: 3.09 months (893 pending sales)
• 1-Month Closed Inventory: 3.7 months (741 closed sales)

That puts us in the three-to-four-month range. That is a fairly active market in a climate where the headlines keep telling you otherwise.

Sales Per Month

Closings ticked up year-over-year and month-over-month. We are well in line with the last four years, but still meaningfully below the 2021–2022 peak. That gap is one of the reasons we've been calling the last several years a "real estate recession" even when prices held up. The volume of transactions is far below what a healthy market should generate.

• 741 Closed Sales
• Up year-over-year

Average Sale Price

After a couple of months below trend, prices snapped back into line with our forecast.

• $815,000 Average Price
• Roughly 6% below the May 2022 peak of ~$864K

If you bought any time before early 2022, you very likely have equity today. And if prices climb another 4–5% over the rest of the year, which is on the table given the spring momentum, we will be retesting that previous high-water mark.

Days to Sell

Homes are moving faster as we shake off winter, and they are dropping faster than they did at the same point last year. It's a quiet but meaningful sign that this spring is stronger than the last one.

• Days on market: down year-over-year and month-over-month

New Listings

This is the stat to watch. New listings were up sharply month-over-month but actually down year-over-year. If new inventory keeps lagging over the next couple of months, expect days-on-market to fall, sale-to-list-price ratios to rise, and average prices to follow. Buyers are out there. The question is whether sellers show up in enough volume to meet them.

Anecdotally: there are not a lot of great-quality listings on the market right now. Buyers tell us they're looking, but they're being picky, and given the leverage they have today, that's a fair call when the timeline allows it.

Sale Price to List Price Ratio

This ratio doesn't lie. It has been a quietly consistent indicator all year, and it just nudged up both year-over-year and month-over-month. Translation: the gap between what sellers are asking and what they're getting is tightening. The market is gaining momentum even when the headlines are mixed.

Lee's real-time barometer, which tracks new listings against pending sales week by week, is also pointing in the right direction. We'd like to see it continue building over the next month or two; that would set up a much healthier rest of the year for both buyers and sellers.

My Advice for Spring 2026

If you are Selling:
If you are in a pocket with limited high-quality inventory, you may be in a stronger position than you realize. Buyers are out there, and they are frustrated by how few good options exist. If you can prep your home properly (cleaning, minor fixes, smart staging), that effort can directly impact your sale price. We just sold an East Side listing in its first weekend on the market, and a big part of that was a seller who took prep seriously. If you don't want to manage that yourself, we can plug you into trusted contractors and handymen.

If you are Buying:
You don't need to chase. We are not heading back to a crazy sellers' market over the next 12 months. That's our read. Inventory is rising, your leverage is real, and if your timeline allows, holding out for the right home is a perfectly reasonable strategy. Just make sure "right" includes the rate environment. Talk to a lender now so you know exactly where you stand the moment the right home shows up.

Want to know what's happening in your specific neighborhood?
Austin is a tale of multiple markets, and the only way to know what is true on your block is to look at your block. Reach out to me directly. I'd love to pull a custom report for you and help you plan your next move.

This month, my partner Lee Abraham and I are looking at a market that is shifting rapidly. We’ve hit a major psychological milestone with interest rates, and we’re seeing a "Great Migration" within the city that is changing the game for local families.

Watch Now

Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.

Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6%

This is the news everyone has been waiting for. For the first time in a long time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has dropped into the "five-handle" range, sitting at 5.98%.

This drop followed the news of a $200 billion bond purchase program aimed at housing affordability, and the impact was immediate. We saw weekly mortgage demand surge by 11% almost overnight. That 6% mark was a massive psychological barrier for buyers, and now that we’re under it, the sidelines are getting a lot less crowded.

The "Great Migration" to Top-Rated Schools

I’ve been talking about this trend for a couple of years, but it is now fully visible in the data. I call it the Great Migration.

As our millennial demographic in Austin continues to grow their families, they are moving in droves from the East Side and South Austin into specific "pockets" with 8+ school ratings. If you look at a map of homes for sale in districts like Eanes, Vandergrift (Steiner Ranch), McCallum, Mueller, and Circle C, those green dots disappear fast.

In these areas, we aren't just seeing "activity"—we’re seeing multiple offers and homes selling in a matter of days. Parents are deciding that even if their current mortgage is 3%, the need for the right school district is worth "biting the bullet" and moving into a 5.9% rate.

The March 2026 Numbers at a Glance

Sales Velocity & Inventory

We started the month with 2,265 active listings in the city. While inventory is slightly up, the speed at which homes are going under contract is accelerating.

• 30-Day Pending Inventory: 2.72 months (This is the lowest we've seen in two years!)
• 1-Month Closed Inventory: 4.08 months

Sales Per Month

We saw a healthy 28% jump in closings as we moved out of the winter lull.

• 531 Closed Sales
• +28.3% Month-over-Month

Average Sale Price

The average price is holding steady. You might remember last month there was a data error (an agent accidentally entered a $299k sale as $29M!), but with that corrected, we are seeing a very stable environment.

• $784,139 Average Price
• -0.2% Month-over-Month

Days to Sell

Homes are moving faster. The average time on market dropped by about five days this month.

• 75 Days Average
• -6.3% Month-over-Month

New Listings

Sellers are finally jumping back in, encouraged by the lower rates and the spring weather.

• 1,008 New Listings
• +23.4% Month-over-Month

My Advice for Spring 2026

If you are Selling:
Now is the time. Your curb appeal is at its peak, and inventory is still incredibly low (under 3 months for pending sales). However, you have to be objective. We are seeing "Ownership Bias" everywhere—sellers thinking their home is worth more than the market will pay. If you price correctly, you’ll sell fast. If you overprice, you’ll sit.

If you are Buying:
Don't wait for the summer rush. Competition is already heating up because of the sub-6% rates. If you’re looking in one of those high-demand school districts, you need a strategy in place before you walk into an open house. Things move too fast to "think about it" for three days.

Want to know what's happening in your specific neighborhood?
The Austin market is hyper-local right now. One street might have five offers while the next street over is quiet. Reach out to me directly—I’d love to pull a custom report for you and help you plan your next move.

In this month’s report, Lee Abraham and I, dive into the latest statistics, looking at how the market is transitioning from the winter lull into the busy spring season.

While January data often shows a seasonal dip in closings, there are significant indicators (particularly in new listings and inventory shifts) that suggest a shift is coming.

Video

Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.

Inventory and Active Listings

We are currently seeing the number of active listings bottoming out for the year. As of the start of February, there were 2,101 active listings of single-family detached homes in the city of Austin.

• 30-Day Pending Inventory: 3.14 months.
• 1-Month Closed Inventory: 5.07 months.

Historically, this is the time of year when inventory is at its lowest. For sellers, this means you currently face the least amount of competition you will see for the rest of the year.

Key Market Statistics

Sales Per Month

The number of closed sales in January (reported in February) saw a significant month-over-month drop, which is typical for the start of the year following the holiday season.

• 414 Closed Sales
• -6.8% Year-over-Year (YOY)
• -43.1% Month-over-Month (MTM)

Days to Sell

Homes are staying on the market slightly longer as we wait for the spring buyer surge.

• 80 Days Average
• -3.6% Year-over-Year (YOY)
• +46.7% Month-over-Month (MTM)

New Listings

This is the most "hopeful" stat in the current report. We saw a massive jump in new listings entering the market compared to December, signaling that sellers are gearing up for spring.

• 817 New Listings
• -15.6% Year-over-Year (YOY)
• +97.3% Month-over-Month (MTM)

Sale Price to List Price Ratio

Buyers are still finding opportunities to negotiate, with homes closing at an average of 96% of their original list price.

• 96.00% Ratio
• -0.3% Year-over-Year (YOY)
• -0.4% Month-over-Month (MTM)

Mortgage Rate Update

According to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (as of late January 2026), rates have remained relatively steady:

• 30-Year FRM: 6.1%
• 15-Year FRM: 5.49%

While rates are higher than the historic lows of years past, the stability is helping buyers plan their moves with more confidence.

The "Spring Bloom" is Coming

As discussed in the video, many sellers wait until March or April to list their homes so that their curb appeal is at its peak. However, listing in February allows you to capture the "early bird" buyers who are active now with very few competing properties to choose from.

Do you have questions about how these numbers affect your specific neighborhood?

Every area of Austin behaves differently. If you are thinking about buying or selling this spring, reach out to us for a hyper-local analysis of your home's value.

If you are thinking about buying or selling this year and have questions about your goals, please reach out to us.

Video

Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.

Inventory Trends

The number of active listings is down at the beginning of January compared to last month. It is standard for January to be the low point for inventory in the yearly cycle. This creates an interesting dynamic because buyers are coming into the market eager to hit their 2026 goals after the holiday season. We currently have 2,128 active listings in the city of Austin.

Closed Sales

The number of closed sales was a surprising figure for the past month at 711. This is a high watermark compared to what we were forecasting. These numbers likely included sales that were under contract for quite some time and finally closed at the end of the year. It is encouraging to see that both the year-over-year and month-to-month sales figures are up. This may be an early indicator that pent up demand is already being unleashed.

Average Pricing

The average sales price is down 1.3 percent year-over-year but up 8.3 percent month-to-month. The average price for December was $821,889. If you look back at the past several years, this is the second-highest average price for the month of December. It shows a nice progression as we move into the new year.

Selling Timing

Many sellers are conditioned to wait until March, April, or May to list their homes. They believe the highest pricing happens later in the year. However, last year we saw a big jump in February because there were not many listings on the market and buyers were already out looking. If you are thinking of selling, you should not wait until the spring. Listing early allows you to benefit from limited inventory and gain as much exposure as possible.

Buying in Eanes

If you have a thesis for the next five years in the Austin area, it should be to buy in Eanes. While median home prices in the city of Austin are nearly flat, Eanes is clearly in an uptrend. There are only about 97 active listings in Eanes compared to over 2,000 in Austin. For families who can afford it, Eanes is the simplest choice because the schools are top-rated with 9 and 10 ratings. This scarcity and high demand lead to better price appreciation.

Market Demand

The number of new listings is currently under 400, which is a very low number. We are seeing a retracting inventory at a time when Austin is still a top destination for millennial wealth. I believe a lot of demand is going to be unleashed in this first quarter. Sellers who list now can take advantage of this supply and demand imbalance.

Interest Rates

Mortgage rates are currently at a 52-week low. The 30-year fixed rate is around 6.15 percent and the 15-year is at 5.44 percent. Some lenders are even quoting below 6 percent for certain loans. Adjustable rate mortgages may also make sense right now if you can save a half percent on your rate and plan to refinance later when rates drop. Every deal is unique, and we can help you walk through the cost-benefit analysis of these different loan types.

Austin's Outlook

Austin remains a very desirable place to live. We still have a lower cost of living than our peer cities and jobs are still coming here. While some headlines highlight major companies moving headquarters, those are often long-term moves that do not change the current number of local jobs. Positive stories continue to drive the Austin market, making it a great place to invest and an even better place to live.

For sellers navigating these conditions, understanding contract terms can make all the difference. I break down the key elements in my guide on maximizing real estate investment through contract terms.

The January 2026 report shows that Austin real estate is off to a strong start with 711 closed sales and mortgage rates hitting 52-week lows. While overall inventory is low at 2,128 active listings, high-demand areas like Eanes ISD continue to see significant price appreciation. The combination of low supply and high pent up demand suggests a very active first quarter for the year.

Austin continues to attract wealthy demographics and job growth, maintaining its status as a top investment hotspot. For sellers, the current lack of competition provides a strategic window to list before the inventory spikes in the spring. Whether you are buying for lifestyle or investment, the fundamental strengths of the Austin market remain firmly in place.

Reach out to us at the Shapiro Group to discuss your specific real estate goals or find us at RealEstateVideoHub.com.

This month’s data reveals a continuing cool-down but also a few interesting trends that could signal a change on the horizon.

Keep reading below for more information.

Full October 2025 Update

Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.

Active Listings Trend

The number of active listings is coming down for the third month in a row.

It was looking like a heck of a peak a couple of months ago, and it’s starting to come down as seasonality continues.

Housing Inventory

At the beginning of October, there were 3,282 active listings of single-family homes in the city of Austin.

We can look at this number in the context of recent sales to understand our housing supply.

• Over the past 30 days, there were 717 pending sales.
• When we divide the active listings by the pending sales, it translates to about a 4.5 or 4.6-month housing inventory.
• If we were to base it on closed sales from the past month (679), we’d be looking more like a five-month inventory.

For our purposes, we’re right at about a four-and-a-half-month housing inventory, which is stable compared to last month.

Sales Per Month

The number of sales per month is up 17% year-over-year but down 10% month-to-month.

This trend continues with a very low number of sales. If you go back and watch our “Trends Don’t Lie” video, you’ll see that if the historical trendline had continued, we’d be looking at around 17,000 sales per year. Instead, we’re probably going to end this year around 10,000.

It’s a huge drop-off in the number of transactions that are happening, and everybody’s feeling that.

Average Sale Price

The average sale price saw a significant drop month-to-month, down 7.3%. Year-over-year is also down, just under 3%. This is to be expected when going from August to September.

Last month, we made a bold statement about timing the market and whether it was at the bottom. This is more directional than specific, but this latest statistic may be the bottom. The question now lingers for a second month: Is this the bottom? We’ll see. Anecdotally, I was at a party the other day and heard someone say, “I feel like I should be buying a house right now.” People are getting that sense.

Days To Sell

Days to sell are up 6.3% both year-over-year and month-over-month. This is not that surprising to see it go a little bit up in September as people are getting back to school and things generally pick up a little bit in the fall before the holidays.

Sale-to-List Ratio

The sale price to list price ratio is another potential canary in the coal mine. While it’s down 0.6% year-over-year, it’s actually up 0.3% month-over-month. This has not been the case for a bit now. So the average price is down, but the sale price to list price ratio is slightly tickling up. Again, this is a potential indicator of a bottom.

New Listings Data

The number of new listings is up 1.3% both year-over-year and month-over-month, showing not much of a big change here. This is the second statistic where the year-over-year and month-to-month figures are exactly the same number.

Inventory Barometer

Our Listing Inventory Barometer gives you real-time data by factoring in not just new listings and pending sales, but also expired and withdrawn listings. This is a proprietary piece of data that Lee put together, and it shows the absolute net growth or retraction of inventory each week. We’ve had an actual reduction in the number of active listings, and the high number of expired and withdrawn listings is the large reason why. It shows that discretionary sellers who can time the market are choosing to pull their homes, perhaps to rent them out or wait for a better time.

Mortgage Rate Update

This is a big talking point.

Last month, we reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.5%. It is now down a bit to 6.34% as of the beginning of October.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is also down slightly to 5.55%. This follows the Fed cutting rates for the first time in a year.

While it’s not a big enough move to entice a lot of buyers yet, it’s a step in the right direction.

Conclusion

To sum it up, the Austin real estate market continues to show signs of cooling, with lower sales volume and a drop in average prices. However, subtle indicators like a slight month-over-month increase in the sale-to-list price ratio and a dip in mortgage rates suggest that we could be approaching a market bottom. Discretionary sellers are pulling back, which is keeping inventory from ballooning and helping to stabilize the market.

My colleague Lee and I provide these updates monthly to keep you informed about the trends affecting Austin real estate. Using a data-driven approach, we help buyers and sellers navigate the complexities of the current market.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, reach out to us.

We are seeing some interesting signals in the market right now. Recent reports confirm that Austin is still the fastest-growing US metro, yet sales volume is at historically low levels. This combination points to a lot of pent-up demand just waiting on the sidelines. So, is this the time to buy or invest before prices potentially jump?

Market Report Video

Watch our video report below for all of the current statistics and our forecast for the Austin Real Estate Market. Or click here to watch it on YouTube.

Current Statistics

In our report, we dive deep into the current housing market statistics.

We break down the numbers to give you a clear picture of what’s happening right now in the Austin area, from sales volume to pricing trends.

Pent Up Demand

With sales volume at historically low levels, all indications point to significant pent-up demand. Many buyers and investors are watching and waiting.

We explore what this means for the market in the coming months and how it could impact your decision-making.

Fastest Growing Metro

Despite shifts in the market, Austin continues to hold its title as the fastest-growing US metro.

This fundamental factor of population growth is a key driver for the long-term health of our real estate market, and we discuss its current impact.

Conclusion

In summary, our latest analysis covers the key indicators you need to know: Austin’s continued growth, the historically low sales volume, and the building pressure of pent-up demand. We look at all these factors to help answer whether the market has truly hit its bottom.

The big question remains: is now the opportune moment to make a move before the market shifts again? We share our complete forecast and data-backed insights to help you make an informed decision.

If you’re considering buying, selling, or investing in the Austin area, reach out to our team today.

It can feel like a buyer’s market in some respects, yet we’re constantly hearing about a persistent housing shortage.

So, which is it? The answer, perhaps surprisingly, is that it’s a bit of both.

Understanding the current dynamics is key. The housing market is complex, influenced by local successes and broader economic forces.

Let’s look at a specific example of how supply impacts affordability locally, and then explore some national trends, with insights from analyst Peter Zeihan, that are shaping the future of housing costs and availability, creating this seemingly contradictory environment.

How Austin Managed Rent Growth

It might surprise some Austinites, but when you look at the data, we’ve actually done a much better job controlling rents compared to many peer cities experiencing similar growth. How? By increasing supply.

This chart shows population growth versus rent change for various cities. Notice Austin (circled) has high population growth but relatively moderate rent inflation compared to cities like Tampa or Phoenix.

We achieved this through significant new construction and absorption. “Absorption” simply means the number of new apartments leased during the year. Strong absorption indicates that the new supply is being met with demand.

This chart highlights Net Absorption across major markets. As you can see, Austin ranks #2 total units absorbed in 2024 beating out much larger cities and #1 in terms of absorption as a percentage of total inventory, demonstrating how effectively new units are being leased.

Austin’s experience suggests that actively increasing housing supply can be a powerful tool to moderate price increases, even in a high-growth environment.

Housing is Getting More Expensive

While local efforts like Austin’s matter, broader economic factors significantly impact housing supply and cost across the country, contributing to the ongoing shortage.

Analyst Peter Zeihan points out several key pressures:

Rising Mortgage Costs

Getting a mortgage is fundamental to buying a house for most people, and costs are climbing.

Zeihan notes multiple factors, including potential government deficit spending increasing pressure on the debt market (which influences mortgage rates) and crucial demographic shifts.

He explains the impact of Baby Boomer retirements:

“Most of the free capital in a system comes from a population of people aged 55 to 65 who haven’t yet retired but are preparing to… Well, as of January of this year, two thirds of the American baby boomers, the largest generation we have ever had, have retired. That liquidation has already happened… It hasn’t been Covid, it hasn’t been Biden or Trump or the Fed. It’s just been the boomers doing what you do when you retire, while that hits mortgage rates as well.”

In essence, as a large generation like the Baby Boomers retires, they often shift their investments from growth-oriented assets to more conservative ones, or liquidate assets to fund retirement.

This transition can reduce the overall pool of “free capital” available in the financial system for things like mortgages.

With less capital chasing lending opportunities, the cost of borrowing (i.e., interest rates, including mortgage rates) can face upward pressure.

Construction Challenges

Building new homes faces multiple hurdles.

Labor is a significant factor, with Zeihan noting that the construction industry heavily relies on migrant workers, and any changes to workforce policies can impact availability.

Furthermore, the costs of essential building materials are rising due to various pressures.

“In addition, we have tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are two of the four biggest components that go into home building. The other two being copper and wood, which are also under sanctions. So all of the inputs that are necessary to build a house in the first place are seeing their prices go up even as finance goes up.”

Insurance Premium Hikes

The rising costs of materials and labor also affect insurance.

If rebuilding is necessary, the costs are higher, leading to increased premiums.

Zeihan points out that these insurance premium hikes are substantial, adding another layer of expense for homeowners and prospective buyers, further straining affordability.

Demographic Lock-In

Unlike previous generations, Baby Boomers are often choosing to age in place rather than downsizing, keeping a large portion of existing housing stock off the market.

“Unlike the generations that have come before who move into smaller units when they retire… boomers are far more likely to stay in their home and age in place… what it does mean is the single largest concentration of homes that owned by the boomers is not getting freed up as part of this demographic turnover.”

Zeihan summarizes the challenging situation this creates, particularly for younger generations:

“And so if you are a millennial and especially a member of Generation Z, the quantity of housing simply isn’t there. The older generation is staying in place. The newer construction costs more. The home insurance that you have to get to get the mortgage costs more, and the mortgage, mortgage itself costs more. You add it all up and housing is just expensive and only going to get more. So we cannot build it fast enough. And even if we could, the components that go into it are more expensive than they have ever been relative to the average income.”

Watch the full video below for more of Peter Zeihan’s insights:

Conclusion

So, how do we reconcile the feeling of a buyer’s market with an undeniable housing shortage?

The Austin example shows that increasing supply can make a difference locally, potentially creating more favorable conditions for buyers in specific areas or segments.

However, the national picture presented by analysts like Peter Zeihan highlights significant headwinds: rising finance costs, increased construction expenses (both labor and materials), higher insurance rates, and demographic trends limiting existing home availability.

In addition there are a multitude of future home buyers waiting to buy — it could be because the economy seems precarious, but primarily they want lower interest rates. So there is a lot of pent up demand that eventually will flow into what are ultimately inventory restricted markets.

These factors combine to maintain a fundamental shortage and make housing more expensive overall, particularly for those trying to enter the market.

While it’s great news for existing homeowners whose equity grows in an inflationary environment, it presents real challenges for first-time buyers and younger generations. It creates a market where, despite some buyer leverage in certain situations (perhaps due to sellers needing to move or specific property types), the underlying lack of sufficient, affordable housing persists.

Understanding these complex, sometimes contradictory, forces is the first step. The next is navigating them effectively.

You might also find my discussion on the market moving towards a buyer’s market insightful.

When you're ready to make a move, knowing how to evaluate offers is crucial. I cover the key contract elements that protect your interests in my guide on essential contract terms for real estate.

If you have questions about how these trends affect your specific real estate goals, whether buying, selling, or investing, let’s talk.

Contact me today for a personalized consultation.

The Plunge into Silence

I arrived in Kaufmann, Texas, ready (or so I thought) for ten days dedicated to the ancient Indian technique of Vipassana, which means “to see things as they really are.” The premise is simple: through silent observation of your own breath and bodily sensations, you cultivate awareness and equanimity, learning to observe reality without craving or aversion. Simple, but far from easy.

The silence began immediately, and my mind raced. Did I send that text? What am I missing? I managed to let those initial thoughts go, but the quiet felt vast and unfamiliar.

Wrestling with Time and Discomfort

The first few days were a blur of adjusting. Thoughts constantly pulled me away – thinking about everything else I could be doing, even daydreaming about a family vacation (ironically, a no-phone one!). Day 1 felt incredibly long, a tough realization that I was only 10% through. Time warped; hours crawled by. At home, 5 PM to 9 PM flies by; here, it felt like an eternity.

Sitting for hours on end was physically demanding. My neck started hurting. Group meditations brought unexpected moments, like stifled laughter bubbling up internally. I even realized I’d been sitting in the wrong assigned spot for days, but in the noble silence, no one could correct me 😂By the evening of Day 3, the thought “Holy shit, it’s still Day 3?” echoed loudly in my mind.

The “Real” Start and Shifting Perspectives

Just when I thought I was getting the hang of something, the teacher, S.N. Goenka (via audio recordings), announced that Vipassana actually started on Day 4. The first three days were just preparation – focusing on Anapana (breath awareness) to calm and concentrate the mind. “WTF?” I thought. “Did I really need three days of warmup?”

This was particularly frustrating because on Day 1, I had already felt the natural inclination to scan my body for other sensations beyond the breath. But trying to be a good student, I restrained myself and followed the instructions precisely. Now I realized I could have been 2½ days ahead if they’d introduced the technique earlier. It reminded me of a familiar feeling from my educational experiences – systems that move too slowly, catering to the median or even the lowest denominator, while those ready to advance must wait patiently.

Despite my skepticism, I decided to trust the process. The morning offered a beautiful sunrise, a small moment of peace amidst the internal struggle. Four nights down, seven to go. “Day at a time. You can do this,” I told myself. That afternoon, we were finally taught the Vipassana technique: systematically scanning the body, observing sensations without reaction. I felt a little perturbed they waited nearly four full days (91 hours!) to introduce it. Could I have gotten here sooner? Probably. But again, I had to let it go and move past the thought.

Deepening the Practice (and the Struggle)

The quiet was profound. Sitting in my room, the only sounds were the heater blowing or occasional footsteps in the hall – a stark contrast to the noisy world outside, or the closest parallel of this style of living I could think of… the shared living of a hostel. Yet, the meditation itself remained incredibly challenging. Holding the posture for more than 15 minutes felt arduous, and keeping my mind focused was a constant battle.

Frustration mounted. Eight hours of meditation per day felt intense, the closest intensive I could compare to was 5 hours per day of Spanish back in 2012 which I did for 4 weeks straight; this was even more demanding. Doubts crept in. Would this really be beneficial? I remained open, but uncertain. Still, small signs of progress emerged. The hour-long sittings started feeling slightly easier, even if my focus wasn’t perfect. It felt like something was shifting.

The Dark Night (and a Glimmer of Breakthrough)

Day 7 was tough. Sleep was elusive, and lying in bed, all I could think about was leaving. My mind churned, justifying reasons to escape, craving distractions – my phone, an audiobook, anything. I felt trapped, having intentionally put myself in a position to confront this discomfort head-on. Was pushing through going to lead to a breakthrough, or would I just be glad when it was over?

Later that day, during a sit, I felt a strange wooziness, like rocking side-to-side. I tried to observe it, but it didn’t grow much. My mind drifted to cravings – the desire to be somewhere else, doing something else. This connected to broader life patterns. I thought about wanting to live in a quiet beach town – analyzing the craving itself. Morning swims, bikeable surroundings, novelty, timelessness, the calming ocean. Yet, Goenka’s discourses about constantly wanting more resonated. I just bought a mountain house, and now I want the beach? Clearly, understanding and working with craving was key.

Then, a turning point. Thinking about my girlfriend, wanting to be home, playing games. I realized this feeling – the longing, the attachment – was the very source of the misery I was experiencing when I didn’t have what I wanted. That was the whole point! To observe these feelings without letting them dictate my state of being. I decided then and there to really commit to the technique. Despite the discomfort in my knee and back, despite wanting to check my watch, I kept refocusing: “It’s impermanent. One more round.” I felt the sensations more deeply, stayed present, again and again. When my watch finally vibrated, signaling the end of the hour, I had done it. I walked out feeling accomplished, and more importantly, equanimous.

The Decision: To Stay or To Go?

This breakthrough shifted my perspective. During an interview with an assistant teacher, I asked how to connect the practice to daily life. He used the example of applying for a job and not getting it – observe the feeling of attachment to the outcome without reacting. This was both freeing and slightly disappointing. Freeing, because it helped me process my own desire to leave the retreat. Disappointing, because I realized I’d already cultivated a degree of this non-attachment in my professional life through years of dealing with wins and losses. Was Vipassana just refining a skill I already possessed?

I decided to press the teacher further on this concept of desire and attachment. “I desire spending time with my girlfriend,” I explained. “Based on what you’re teaching, shouldn’t I avoid desiring things? Should I never want to spend time with her? If that’s the case, should I just break up with her and have nothing?” I continued along the same line of reasoning: “If I desire to leave here, and I shouldn’t desire things, then shouldn’t I just stay here forever and become a monk?”

His response was nuanced – it’s okay to aspire toward things, but not to be attached to the outcome. I immediately translated this to my situation: I could express my aspiration to leave without being attached to that outcome. If he had told me we were on an island with no boats coming for three days, making it impossible to leave, I could accept that reality equanimously. But in our actual scenario, my car was just 200 feet away. Why wouldn’t I follow my desire to leave if I could do so without attachment to either outcome?

Ultimately, the teacher didn’t offer a compelling explanation for why I shouldn’t leave, beyond his personal encouragement that I should stay. I remained open: “I’ll stay if you can convince me why I should.” But based on his own teachings about non-attachment, leaving seemed perfectly aligned with the philosophy he was promoting. The irony wasn’t lost on me.

I started weighing the pros and cons of staying versus leaving three days early. Had I achieved my initial goals?

• Increase meditation capacity? Yes, massively. 50 hours in 7 days versus maybe 1 hour a day prior. Check.
• Disconnect? Yes. 7 days without a phone was a significant achievement. Check.
• Think things through? Yes, 7 days provided ample time to run through every thought multiple times. Check.
• Get bored (a sabbatical goal)? Yes, definitely achieved that! Check.

What could I gain by staying? Potential new insights, meeting others on Day 10, a sense of accomplishment. What could I gain by leaving? Three enjoyable days with loved ones, sleeping in my own bed, getting back to my routine, potentially a bike ride with my dad and uncle which felt more meaningful than three more days of silent struggle.

Leaving early was a tough decision because I typically like to complete things and push through challenges. But I analyzed it carefully: Was there something magical about 10 days? If it had been a 13-day retreat and I left on day 10, would I have gotten less out of it? The fear of missing out (FOMO) seemed the main reason to stay. On the final day they allow you to speak to the other participants, and I was very curious about people’s stories who I had seen at every meal and passed on my walks along the trails. Ultimately, feeling I had gained what I came for and recognizing the value of returning to my life, I decided to leave after the evening discourse on Day 7.

The Unexpected Gift of Leaving Early

Leaving three days early offered an unexpected perspective. Nobody was expecting to hear from me during those days. When I turned on my phone and saw the accumulated text messages, I had this profound realization: “Wow, this is crazy. I wasn’t going to be able to respond to these for three more days, and everything would have been just fine.”

This simple insight shifted my relationship with digital communication. The constant urgency we feel around texts and emails is largely self-imposed. The world continues turning even when we’re not immediately available. This lesson about patience and perspective might have been worth the entire retreat.

Life After Silence: Integrating the Experience

Returning home felt surreal. It was hard to believe I would still have been in silence had I stayed. The processing continues, but the retreat offered tangible takeaways:

1. Awareness of Impermanence: The constant instruction to observe sensations knowing they will arise and pass away (anicca) is a powerful life tool. Discomfort, craving, joy – it all changes. Observing this reality reduces reactivity.
2. Understanding Craving and Aversion: So much of our suffering comes from wanting things we don’t have (craving) or pushing away things we don’t like (aversion). Vipassana provides a method to observe these urges without being controlled by them.
3. The Power of Equanimity: Cultivating a balanced mind, even amidst discomfort or distraction, is a skill. It doesn’t mean not feeling; it means not being overwhelmed by feelings.
4. Appreciation for Connection (and Noise!): While the silence was profound, the experience heightened my appreciation for connection and the simple act of communication. My girlfriend even mentioned she didn’t realize how often she asked me questions until she couldn’t for a week!
5. Increased Capacity for Presence: Even if challenging, sitting for hours trains the “muscle” of attention and presence.

Final Thoughts and Advice for Others

In hindsight, if I had done more research beforehand, I might have realized what I was actually looking for was a 7-10 day no-technology retreat with several hours of daily meditation complemented by yoga or surfing in a place like Bali or Hawaii. The strict Vipassana format was more extreme than what I needed for my personal growth journey.

For anyone considering a Vipassana retreat, I encourage you to evaluate your other options and truly understand what you’re getting yourself into. This particular format is intense and may not be necessary for everyone. Ask yourself what you’re hoping to gain – is it the digital detox? The meditation practice? The silent contemplation? There are various retreats that offer these elements in different combinations and intensities.

My Vipassana retreat wasn’t the blissful escape some might imagine. It was often uncomfortable, frustrating, and profoundly challenging. It involved confronting mental patterns, physical discomfort, and the raw nature of existence stripped bare of distractions. Yet, through that struggle came moments of clarity, resilience, and a deeper understanding of my own mind. It wasn’t about becoming a monk, but about finding practical tools to navigate life with more awareness and balance.

While I felt complete after seven days, feeling I had integrated the core lessons for myself at that time, the experience remains a significant marker. It reinforced the idea that growth often lies just outside our comfort zone, in the spaces where we choose to sit with difficulty rather than run from it. It’s a reminder that sometimes, the most profound journeys happen in stillness.

My girlfriend is going to be a millionaire because she switched her cell phone plan!

With my new found free time I’m getting back to my roots (saving money) and I am shocked that me and everyone I know is on a major cell phone carrier paying $60, $80, or $100+ per month. My girlfriend is paying $115/mo 🤯

I switched my cell phone plan to US Mobile, it’s $25/mo, switching was really easy and seamless. They use the same network as Verizon, ATT, and T-Mobile- you can switch multiple times during the month between those networks. Their customer service has been responsive and helpful via chat.

You can see the data speeds are just as good…

Nick Gray gets credit for sharing the YouTube channel where I learned about all this, now that I’ve guinea pigged it he’s about to switch!

It’s unlimited data but they throttle after 35g. It’s really easy to change some settings on your phone to get your data down each month. If you’re curious how much you use go to Settings → Cellular and look for “Current Period”. If you don’t see a date it resets then that’s how much you’ve used since you last manually reset it, likely when you bought the phone. You can call your carrier or check their app for your monthly data usage.

They have a $44/mo plan with $100gb of premium data. That plan also has $10gb of international data per month, so I plan to switch to that for months I’ll be out of the country.

And either plan you can prepay for the year for a discount. Probably some of you spend that in just 2-3 months. You’re welcome! Use my referral link to thank me so I get $25 and you get 30 days free: https://www.usmobile.com/referrals?referrer=2A58C573

I told my girlfriend she should switch then make a TikTok video about how she’s going to become a millionaire by switching her cell phone plan. I made her a spreadsheet. With no other investments other than the $90/mo she’ll save and invest from going from $115 – $25/mo, she’ll be a millionaire by 54, and at 65 she can retire with $7.5M! Compound interest is an amazing thing!

* I used a 20% return, so she’s putting it in BTC 😆

The End

I closed on a house in Park City Utah 🎉

Check it out:

Some stats about the house:

• 6 bedrooms
• Hot tub + Cold plunge + Sauna
• 5 minutes to Deer Valley, 15 minutes to Park City, 45 mins to the airport

It’s an average 70 degrees in Park City in the summer!

There are 3 partners, so the plan is to rent it 1/4 of the year and we each get to use it 1/4 of the year.

Main Reasons I Did This

1) I have been obsessed with the idea of a vacation home for several years, I had originally told my partner/friend I needed to back burner it because I likely had surgery coming up. Then I realized I was so myopically focused on treatment and this would be something fun to look forward to. It's been a positive distraction!

2) It's a great forcing function to get a big house where friends and family can come hang for some quality time

3) Market timing is great - we were able to negotiate a good deal and I anticipate the market will go back to a seller's market in the near future so not sure we could have gotten a house like this if we had waited

4) Hopefully it leads to more skiing!

5) Heat Map Theory

A very hot day in June

When I'm in Austin (or NYC) in the summer I would often think "It's SOO HOT, must be so much cooler so many places" ... but it's not. As it continues to get hotter the few places that are cool in the summer are going to become more popular. And most of the population of the US lives somewhere that is hot.

I wanted a cool place to spend a month in the summer.

I am reading Lance Armstrong's book "It's not about the bike", and there's a quote from early in his cancer diagnosis...

I had received an e-mail from a military guy stationed in Asia. He was a fellow cancer patient, and he wanted to tell me something. "You don't know it yet", he wrote, "but we're the lucky ones."

I believe it's alluding to the lessons and growth he'll gain from the experience. I know that I'll look back on this experience in a similar way, although it's not fully clear to me yet either. Some positives that have come of this so far...

1. All the love I've received from y'all 🥰

2. Gave me a good excuse to take the sabbatical I've been wanting to take for several years now - although looking back I feel like we shouldn't need to get cancer to do what we REALLY want 👀

3. I've found an interest in epigenetics, gene expression, and Joe Dispenza meditations

4. An appreciation for good pain - I had many tough track workouts over the past 6 months, where I pushed myself hard with the thought "I'd much rather endure the pain of this than of chemo, and who knows how my body will perform after treatment." - not that in my situation at the time a hard workout would cure me, but I think a general lesson is that it's better to do the hard things up front on our terms, rather than be forced into harder things later because we don't take care of ourselves.

I'll get back to running and pursuing my 5 min mile goal as well as completing a Hyrox. Hopefully it inspires someone to treat themselves better 😊

5. If anyone needs help advocating for themselves in the medical system I could put on a masterclass

6. A badass scar!

How am I doing?

I'm swollen. Looking at the pic 5 days before surgery vs me in the same bathing suit 5 days after surgery is astonishing. (Happy to share the photo although I assume most don't want to see my scar just yet. Eventually everyone will see it, I'm just as curious as anyone to know what it's going to look like a year from now.) Seeing myself brings up thoughts like...

"I can't believe I let the surgeon do this to me. I decided to do this. What if this never goes back to normal."

To... "many guys have fully recovered from this, it's amazing what the body is able to handle. We're all like my favorite superhero, Wolverine, it just takes more time."

The hardest thing is sleeping and getting in/out of bed. Fortunately my amazing girlfriend is very nurturing and lifts weights. The perfect combo for my situation haha.

I've been told I need to walk and keep things functioning but don't overdo it. As you know I work better on specifics and just pushing my body to whatever my coach tells me. So doing my best to "feel" into this one.

**If you missed the video of my first 24 hours post surgery it's here**

And I'm excited. The past several months were tough, so many experts with different opinions and different ways to handle the situation. I was fortunate that we caught this early so it gave me options, but it also meant I needed to make tough decisions and of course I went on an intense fact finding mission. Now that there are no decisions to be made, it's a relief and I can start thinking about other things. Things that are more exciting :)

Prognosis:

After the first surgery in March I had a 50% chance of cure

The MRI in July that was "suspicious" put my chance of still being cancer-free at 2-15% depending on which expert I was talking to

After the surgery last week I have a 80-90% chance of being cured. So that's the highest chance since this started

Chemo has a 97% cure rate, so that is still an option if I were to need it, but both my goal and my doctors' is that I would only need one more treatment, chemo or surgery, and we felt the chances were high enough with surgery with a fraction of the long-term consequences.

How you can continue to support:

1. Come visit - which is what I like about the meal train. Feel free to bring others. We can play board games, use AI to come up with fun abdomen tattoos for me, whatever else. My new house has two guest rooms so come from out of town too!

2. Even though I'm not able to work right now, Lee and the rest of the Shapiro Group are hard at work serving our clients with the same level of expertise that you can expect from me. Please continue to reach out if you need help with anything real estate related and refer your friends. You can connect them directly with Lee, here is an intro I wrote up that you're welcome to adapt. Lee Intro and Contact Info

3. Write us a google review - whatever experience you've had with me or the team. Doesn't have to be long, best to mention Lee or "the team" over me, and of course ChatGPT can be your friend :)

Link to our Google Page

How I can support you:

I have free time, it's just mostly from a sofa. So if you want to chat about something I can help with please call.
I'm happy to help with real estate questions, a negotiation you're in the midst of, review spreadsheets or talk about finances. If you think of something I can help you with I'd love to.

Thanks for reading my blog post of an email 😄

Looking forward to seeing you soon!

Caffeine: This brings up a very common solution that most people use daily for this issue. Because frankly, I bet the majority of americans’ sleep looks like the above charts without a major surgery.

My philosophy though is counterintuitive, but I’ll explain: Only use caffeine when I’m well rested

I know people love their caffeine and/or the ritual, I’ll talk about that too, but I am going to broach what I’ve found to be an oddly touchy subject 🤔

The Importance of Sleep

Sleep is the foundation for humans. If you haven’t read “Why We Sleep”, I highly recommend!

Here are a few of my favorite takeaways:

1. Imagine something so critical evolutionarily that even thousands of years ago, living in much less secure environments, our senses would be turned off, and at some points we can’t even move (REM). This thing must be SUPER important if we evolved with that obvious weakness toward survival.
2. Consistent full night’s rest is one of the top cures or prevention against just about any disease or ailment you can think of and it has zero side effects!… Heart disease, diabetes, obesity, cancer, dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, mental health disorders, weakened immune system, stroke, reproductive health issues.
3. It improves emotional regulation – obviously improved cognitive function, physical performance and the many other benefits are great, but emotional regulation to me is the biggest game changer because it compounds to improving so many other aspects of your life. Ultimately it makes you happier!

Personal Experience with Emotional Regulation

You’ve probably primarily seen me in just a couple emotional states – calm, excited, or laughing/fun. I admire that about myself and hope that’s the picture you have 🙂

Very few instances of me being upset – I can think of the Final Four in 2014 when I had got into a yelling match with a guy who tried to steal Rob Dial’s seat. I can tell you the story when I see you. Most importantly, my Huskies were national champs, and I watched it live with close friends!

One thing that has come with age is awareness around my emotions. And if I notice that I’m irritable I now immediately think “Did I not sleep well last night? Maybe it’s nap time”.

The Problem with Using Caffeine When Tired

My philosophy is if I’m tired I need to sleep/nap. Caffeine is only going to mask the issue. If I mask it then It could lead to a number of the issues above. But you might say…

“Not just from one day of poor sleep and caffeine!”

However, often the tiredness is in the afternoon, and late caffeine will impact sleep, even if you don’t think it is, I promise the quality of sleep is not there.

So then that night people don’t sleep well, so what do they do the next day? More caffeine. And the cycle begins. And the majority of Americans have been in that cycle for years or decades. So just one day is almost never just that.

Hence, my steadfast commitment to stay away from caffeine when I’m tired. I think that there will be an enlightenment around the use of caffeine in our culture in the future. Just like many of my friends no longer drink alcohol, or they use it infrequently. I think the impacts of improper caffeine use on our long-term health and happiness will become more apparent.

The Caffeine Dosage Dilemma

Another issue with caffeine is the inconsistent delivery method. Can you imagine if your doctor prescribed you a medication and in the bottle were 100 identically looking pills all of completely different doses ranging from 60mg to 300mg. On the side it says “Take as needed”

Then you just pop one and hope it’s about what you need 😂 it’s absurd, but that’s what people do with caffeine. Here’s a video I found interesting where he goes around to NYC coffee shops with a chemistry kit to test how much caffeine is actually in their coffee. Summary – it varies wildly!

This leads to people constantly dosing themselves on the high side, then needing to keep upping the dosage to get the same effect. Have you experienced this?

It’s why some people drink 5+ cups of coffee per day!

It would make more sense to drink decaf coffee and pop a caffeine pill of the proper dosage rather than play roulette with drug intake.

My Personal Approach to Caffeine

Do I use caffeine?

Yes, I like the taste of coffee. And I’ll occasionally have some caffeine because I want to be a bit more productive or push myself harder in a workout. ONLY on days that I know I slept well and very early, ideally before 10am. Usually no more than once per week and I prefer the dosage of green tea. But when I’m getting a coffee I’ll ask for half-caff, and then I’ll take it really slow, often not finishing it because I’ll already feel the effects.

Alternative Morning Rituals

MudWater, decaf coffee, or other alternatives exist so you can have a morning ritual without caffeine. Coffee isn’t inherently better as a ritual, it’s just what has been used for a long time. Here are two that other cultures use as an example (thanks chatGPT)

India – Golden Milk (Turmeric Milk)

• A traditional Indian morning drink is golden milk or haldi doodh, made from turmeric, warm milk (often dairy-free), and spices like cinnamon or black pepper. It’s known for its anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties, promoting health and vitality.

Himalayas – Butter Tea (Po Cha)

• In Tibet and other Himalayan regions, butter tea is a morning ritual. Made with tea leaves, yak butter, and salt, it’s a hearty and filling drink that’s energizing due to its caloric content but without caffeine.

Energy Management Beyond Caffeine

Sleep is one factor. Eating right, fitness, and fun/friends all play a role in my great energy levels with no caffeine intake on most days. I have to keep my sleep on track so that I can compound my returns with the others. Hit me with your concerns, questions, etc. I’m sure I’ve thought through them.

To summarize, I’ve been sleeping like crap and therefore have felt similarly 💩

I’ve had a lot of other thoughts over the past week, but that was a long enough diatribe for now 😊

One week ago at this time I was just getting out of surgery.

Now that I'm feeling up to it I wanted to send an update.

I've felt so grateful over the past several weeks for the outpouring of support.

Thank you for coming by to help hang curtains, listening, or just texting to say I was on your mind.

I am reading Lance Armstrong's book "It's not about the bike", and there's a quote from early in his cancer diagnosis...

I had received an e-mail from a military guy stationed in Asia. He was a fellow cancer patient, and he wanted to tell me something. "You don't know it yet", he wrote, "but we're the lucky ones."

I believe it's alluding to the lessons and growth he'll gain from the experience. I know that I'll look back on this experience in a similar way, although it's not fully clear to me yet either.

Some positives that have come of this so far...

1. All the love I've received from y'all 🥰

2. Gave me a good excuse to take the sabbatical I've been wanting to take for several years now - although looking back I feel like we shouldn't need to get cancer to do what we REALLY want 👀

3. I've found an interest in epigenetics, gene expression, and Joe Dispenza meditations

4. An appreciation for good pain - I had many tough track workouts over the past 6 months, where I pushed myself hard with the thought "I'd much rather endure the pain of this than of chemo, and who knows how my body will perform after treatment." - not that in my situation at the time a hard workout would cure me, but I think a general lesson is that it's better to do the hard things up front on our terms, rather than be forced into harder things later because we don't take care of ourselves.

**I'll get back to running and pursuing my 5 min mile goal as well as completing a Hyrox. Hopefully it inspires someone to treat themselves better 😊

5. If anyone needs help advocating for themselves in the medical system I could put on a masterclass

6. A badass scar!

How am I doing?

I'm swollen. Looking at the pic 5 days before surgery vs me in the same bathing suit 5 days after surgery is astonishing.

(Happy to share the photo although I assume most don't want to see my scar just yet. Eventually everyone will see it, I'm just as curious as anyone to know what it's going to look like a year from now.)

Seeing myself brings up thoughts like...

"I can't believe I let the surgeon do this to me. I decided to do this. What if this never goes back to normal."

To... "many guys have fully recovered from this, it's amazing what the body is able to handle. We're all like my favorite superhero, Wolverine, it just takes more time."

The hardest thing is sleeping and getting in/out of bed.

Fortunately my amazing girlfriend is very nurturing and lifts weights. The perfect combo for my situation haha.

I've been told I need to walk and keep things functioning but don't overdo it.

As you know I work better on specifics and just pushing my body to whatever my coach tells me. So doing my best to "feel" into this one.

And I'm excited. The past several months were tough, so many experts with different opinions and different ways to handle the situation. I was fortunate that we caught this early so it gave me options, but it also meant I needed to make tough decisions and of course I went on an intense fact finding mission.

Now that there are no decisions to be made, it's a relief and I can start thinking about other things.

Things that are more exciting :)

Prognosis:

After the first surgery in March I had a 50% chance of cure

The MRI in July that was "suspicious" put my chance of still being cancer-free at 2-15% depending on which expert I was talking to

After the surgery last week I have a 80-90% chance of being cured. So that's the highest chance since this started

Chemo has a 97% cure rate, so that is still an option if I were to need it, but both my goal and my doctors' is that I would only need one more treatment, chemo or surgery, and we felt the chances were high enough with surgery with a fraction of the long-term consequences.

How you can continue to support:

1. Come visit - which is what I like about the meal train. Feel free to bring others. We can play board games, use AI to come up with fun abdomen tattoos for me, whatever else. My new house has a guest room so come from out of town too!

2. Even though I'm not able to work right now, Lee and the rest of the Shapiro Group are hard at work serving our clients with the same level of expertise that you can expect from me. Please continue to reach out if you need help with anything real estate related and refer your friends. You can connect them directly with Lee, here is an intro I wrote up that you're welcome to adapt. See more here: Lee Intro and Contact Info

3. Write us a google review - whatever experience you've had with me or the team. Doesn't have to be long, best to mention Lee or "the team" over me, and of course ChatGPT can be your friend :) Here's the link to our Google Page

How I can support you:

I have free time, it's just mostly from a sofa. So if you want to chat about something I can help with please call.

I'm happy to help with real estate questions, a negotiation you're in the midst of, review spreadsheets or talk about finances. If you think of something I can help you with I'd love to.

Making the Arrangement

Back in 2014, I owned a four-bedroom house.

I had two roommates, so my cost after they paid me rent was a couple of hundred dollars a month for my mortgage and utilities.

I made a deal with my roommates to try out Airbnb—I mean, who would say no to free money?

They agreed to stay with their girlfriends on weekends while we rented the place out.

I told them I would take $100 first for coordinating the Airbnb, which in hindsight was a deal for them, but at the time, it seemed fair.

The rest of it, we would split three ways.

Check Out the Video

Growing the Business

Our first booking went smoothly, and everyone wanted to do more.

We started doing it more frequently as everybody wanted to lower their living expenses.

With my roommates rent and the airbnb income I was bringing in more revenue than my mortgage payment. Huge win for me in my mid 20's!

This experience gave me my start with STR's (short-term rentals), helping me understand the business model.

I continued to house hack and expanded my real estate ventures from there.

Conclusion

House hacking with Airbnb transformed my living expenses from paying rent to generating profit.

This simple strategy – combining traditional roommates with weekend Airbnb rentals – proved that a creative real estate solution can turn your primary residence into an income-generating asset. I love this as a way to start in real estate investing because it's sooo low risk.

What started out as a weekend experiment turned into a sustainable real estate model, proving anyone can achieve financial freedom with the right plan and execution.

This article is based on a story that I told on my YouTube channel here.

Here's the full story.

The Challenge of Negotiating a "Good Deal"

We were thick in the negotiation process, and when we got to the $200,000 price point, my buddy who was going to go in on the deal as my partner, walked away.

That left me with a tough decision. I decided to move forward without him.

When we got to $218,000, I said, "I'm out! I'm not going any higher."

Video

You can watch the video of this story here.

My Agent's Intervention

The seller was firm at $220,000 and my agent was telling me it's going to be a mistake if I walk away over $2000.

I didn't know. I thought there was a price I should pay for a house, and $218k was the arbitrary number I came up with.

Now I know there's a range, and it's never an exact price. My agent told me that he was going to kick in $500 towards the two grand if I move forward.

I thought, whoa, okay, this guy must really think I should do this deal.

The Rewarding Outcome

Fortunately, that was a little kick I needed and push to move forward and do the deal, and I bought that house for $220,000.

I've owned it for 18 years, and it's made me hundreds of thousands of dollars.

To think I almost walked away for $2,000 is a bit crazy.

Conclusion

Real estate investment decisions often come down to small differences that can yield massive returns over time.

This early experience taught me that getting too fixated on specific numbers can blind you to the bigger picture of long-term value.

Sometimes the best investment decisions require pushing past our self-imposed limitations.

This article is based on a story that I told on my YouTube channel here.

I will show you how a two million dollar gap became a five million dollar lesson.

The Initial Negotiation

We had a buyer that was willing to pay $16 million for a property in downtown Austin that was listed for $18 million.

It was a really fair price, and one of the issues with properties like this is they're truly unique properties, so there are very few comparable assets to reference for accurate valuation.

You can't actually say what it's worth, so it's a little bit subjective.

We felt like our buyer was totally in line, but the seller, who was a multi-millionaire, was getting a bit greedy and was not going to come down from his $18 million price, which is a little bit arbitrary.

Check Out the Video

The Consequences of Inflexibility

What happened over the next couple of months is that the residential real estate market deteriorated, and that seller came back to us and said, “Hey, we'd like to accept your previous $16 million offer.”

I strongly advised my clients based on market analysis that they no longer needed to pay $16M. My client agreed so we responded, “If you didn't notice the market changed. We'd be happy to move forward but our offer is now $13 million.”

He firmly rejected any further price reduction from $16 million, effectively ending negotiations.

Why Timing Trumps Pride in Real Estate

That property still hasn't sold over two years later, and I don't know what a couple million dollars really means to that guy because he's worth hundreds of millions.

The decision appeared driven by greed and emotion rather than business acumen.

Instead of moving forward stress-free with a completed transaction, he remains burdened with an unsold property.

Conclusion

Sometimes the biggest obstacle to closing a deal is ourselves.

This seller's story shows how inflexibility can turn a solid offer into a missed opportunity.

Here are the key lessons:

• Even experienced investors can let emotions override sound business decisions
• Markets can shift faster than seller expectations
• Multi-million dollar properties require additional expertise and flexibility due to their limited buyer pool
• The opportunity cost of holding out often exceeds the perceived “loss” of accepting a fair offer

Remember: in real estate, the first offer is often the best offer.

This article is based on a story that I told on my YouTube channel here.

After years of representing sellers, we've identified seven critical contract terms that make all the difference.

Let me walk you through the 7 essential contract term elements.

Setting the Stage for Success

Before examining specific contract terms, it's crucial to create the right conditions for receiving strong offers.

At Shapiro Real Estate Group, we implement several proven strategies:

• Pre-inspections eliminate uncertainty and reduce buyer leverage
• Comprehensive seller disclosures build trust and prevent renegotiations
• Documented home improvements with dates and costs justify higher prices
• Professional marketing materials attract serious, competitive buyers

With these foundations in place, sellers can negotiate from a position of strength.

Video

Watch the full video on my YouTube channel here.

Or watch it below:

7 Critical Contract Terms

Price

While price is the most obvious term, it must be evaluated alongside other contingencies. As my colleague Lee Abraham notes, "It's not just about the price, it's about the leverage."

In today's market, we often recommend listing at comparative market value rather than maximum potential price. This "go low, aim high" strategy maximizes property exposure and creates a competitive environment where emotional bidding drives final prices well above asking.

Option Period (Amount and Duration)

The option period gives buyers the unrestricted right to terminate for any reason. This is particularly important in Texas, where buyers pay for this termination right.

Two factors matter here:

• Option fee amount: Higher non-refundable fees favor sellers
• Option period length: Shorter periods (3-5 days versus 10-14) reduce seller risk

Strategically, reducing the number of days is often more important than increasing the fee amount, as it limits the buyer's window to back out.

Appraisal Waiver

With escalating prices, appraisal issues have become increasingly common. Three possibilities exist:

• Cash offers: No appraisal required
• Full waiver: Buyer commits to cover any gap between sale price and appraisal
• Partial waiver: Establishes a floor (often list price) below which renegotiation is possible

A higher-priced offer without an appraisal waiver may be an illusion if the property won't appraise at the offered price. When representing sellers, we always push for full waivers when possible.

Buyer Approval Waiver

The financing contingency allows buyers to terminate if they cannot secure financing. Working with pre-approved buyers who waive this contingency significantly reduces seller risk.

In today's competitive market, serious buyers should be willing to waive this contingency or at minimum have very short approval timeframes. This is another "out" we work to close for our sellers.

Earnest Money

Earnest money is a refundable deposit held by the title company that serves as the seller's protection after the option period ends.

Higher earnest money indicates a committed buyer and provides compensation if the deal falls through after contingencies are cleared. When evaluating multiple offers, we look closely at this figure as it directly correlates to the buyer's commitment level.

Title Insurance

Traditionally paid by sellers, in today's competitive market buyers may offer to cover this expense.

This typically costs about 0.7% of the purchase price, so it's easily several thousand dollars on most deals. When a buyer covers this cost, it directly improves the seller's net proceeds, making it an important concession to negotiate.

Closing Date

The timeline to closing can significantly impact sellers, especially if they need funds by a specific date for another purchase.

Cash offers typically provide more closing date flexibility with faster options (as few as 7-10 days) compared to financed offers that require more processing time. For sellers with tight timelines, this can be a deciding factor between otherwise similar offers.

A Real-World Example

Let me share a realistic scenario.

Imagine receiving three offers on your $1.6 million listing:

1. Offer #1: List price ($1.6M), cash, 5-day option period with $2,500 fee, no appraisal needed, no buyer approval needed, $32,000 earnest money, buyer pays title insurance, 15-day close
2. Offer #2: 5% above list ($1.68M), financed with 50% down, 5-day option with $7,000 fee, full appraisal waiver, no buyer approval needed, $32,000 earnest money, buyer pays title insurance, 30-day close
3. Offer #3: 10% above list ($1.76M), financed, 5-day option with $5,000 fee, NO appraisal waiver, includes buyer approval contingency, $50,000 earnest money, buyer pays title insurance, 30-day close

Which is best? It depends entirely on your specific objectives:

• Need absolute certainty? Offer #1 (cash) provides the clearest path to closing
• Willing to accept some risk for more money? Offer #2 balances a higher price with reasonable security
• Highest potential but highest risk? Offer #3 could fall apart if the appraisal comes in low

This is where our expertise becomes most valuable – helping you weigh these factors against your personal circumstances and risk tolerance.

Conclusion

Understanding these seven contract terms gives you powerful tools to evaluate offers beyond just the price.

As real estate professionals, we enjoy diving into these details to ensure our clients get what they deserve in the transaction.

If you're considering selling your home, I'd love to discuss how we can maximize your property's value using these proven strategies. Send me an email by clicking here.

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